Tourism In Flux: Why economics, policy and storytelling will decide who wins
Travel has evolved, driven by politics as much as consumers' pocket. The days of relying on "nice weather and historic hotspots" are over. To succeed, destinations and brands need a clear strategy that merges economics, policy, and powerful storytelling.
The summer of 2025 was a wake-up call for the tourism industry. While destinations from Barcelona to Bali grappled with overtourism, others couldn’t fill beds. The industry is in flux, and understanding the forces at play is no longer a luxury; it's a necessity. The brands that will succeed are those that adapt their strategy to a market of stretched and sceptical customers.
Uncertain times
Skift’s State of Travel 2025 report shows global international arrivals are now 3% above the pre-pandemic peak of 2019. Despite that resilience – and the UNWTO’s forecast of 3 to 5% growth in global traveller numbers this year – the outlook is far from certain. Skift reports that slower economic growth, high travel costs and the rise of tariffs are hitting the pockets of tourists the world over. In the United States, inbound travel softened in 2025, with fewer Canadians and Europeans crossing the border due to new tariffs and visa fees. Many of those travellers are redirecting their spending elsewhere: Canadians to Mexico and the Caribbean, Europeans to southern Europe.
Elsewhere, currency shifts are changing where people go. Japan’s weak yen has drawn record visitors from China and Singapore, while Spain is seeing less spending from US tourists as the euro-dollar rate works against them.
South Africa’s picture is more complex: the weaker currency and tariff uncertainty pushed some operators to discount to keep occupancy up in parts of the country, while safari demand has held up as winter remains the prime game-viewing season in the Kruger National Park and other reserves.
On the policy level, there is some good news. In September, South Africa rolled out a fully digital visa system: QR-coded, app-based and designed to slash waiting times. For high-potential markets such as India, China and the Gulf, where red tape has long been a deterrent, this could trigger an influx of bookings.
Make it mean something
The big economic shifts might provide the backdrop, but Mastercard’s Travel Trends 2025 report shows spending on experiences has surged. The Bank of Greece’s H1 tourism data, for instance, reveals that inbound tourist numbers were up only 0.8% in 2024, but revenue rose 11% and average spend per night jumped 10%. Visitors were spending more on food, activities and events, even though arrivals barely increased.
Summer booking data from Airbnb support this: travellers are planning trips around experiences. The company’s 2025 Summer Travel Trends report reveals a surge in “fandom travel”, where music and sports fans are travelling long distances for concerts or tournaments.
The household calculation is simple: save on the bed, splurge on the memory. This explains why wildlife, wellness, food and sport continue to draw resilient spend across income brackets. It also explains why mid-market hotels in some parts are struggling: they offer neither the price edge of budget nor the uniqueness of premium.
Positioning in a stretched market
For brands, the lesson is that you cannot fight macroeconomic tides, but you can decide how travellers perceive value, and ensure you are delivering it. This environment makes brand positioning crucial to communicating value.
One of our key hospitality clients is Kruger Gate Hotel, a flagship property at the entrance to Kruger National Park. Our work has centred on showcasing the hotel as the gateway to one of Africa’s most iconic wildlife destinations.
Irvine Partners is also leading the international communications launch campaign for Ubuyu, a new Banyan Tree Escape set to launch in southern Tanzania in late 2025. Part of the Banyan Tree Group – a pioneer of eco-luxury resorts across Asia, the Middle East and now Africa – the Escape brand carries significant prestige. Here, we’re focusing on the uniqueness of lesser trodden safari experiences and strategic storytelling that blends luxury, sustainability, and cultural immersion for audiences in key source markets like the UK and Germany.
What to expect for the remainder of the year
As 2025 enters its final quarter, three shifts are shaping the tourism market:
Firstly, exchange rates now move tourism demand. A weak currency brings bookings; a strong one still draws visitors, but with tighter spending. The communications challenge is to show why the experience is still worth it.
Late bookings are the second trend. Travellers are waiting until the last minute, forcing hotels and operators to control their inventory and speak directly to guests. Messaging has to answer immediate questions: what’s available now, how do I get there, and what’s included?
The third issue is policy. South Africa’s launch of the e-visa shows how reform can turn interest into arrivals. But a reform only works if travellers know about it. That’s where communications matter: packaging a government policy as part of a destination’s value proposition.
The bigger picture is that travel has evolved, driven by politics as much as pocket. Ultimately, people still value experiences above all else. The destinations and brands that will thrive are those that understand these market fluctuations and prove their value.
Amid changing trends, some things remain true. Clear storytelling, grounded in economic reality, keeps brands competitive and visible to global travellers. It’s this combination of insight, experience and strategic storytelling that turns a challenging environment into momentum and keeps brands front of mind for travellers who have much more choice, and higher expectations, than ever before.
By Katie Andrews, Business Unit Director at Irvine Partners